中国石化新闻网讯 据世界能源网6月16日报道，据EIA最新中期报告预计，2026年后，用于运输的石油使用量将下降，但预计强劲的石化需求将继续支撑整体消费。

该机构今天发布的一份新报告《2023年石油中期市场报告》显示，未来几年，世界石油需求的增长将放缓，几乎停止，全球能源危机凸显的高价格和供应安全问题加速了向清洁能源技术的转变。

《2023年石油中期市场报告》预测，根据当前政府政策和市场趋势，2022年至2028年间，全球石油需求将增长6%，达到1.057亿桶/日，这得益于石化和航空行业的强劲需求。尽管有这一累计增长，但预计年需求增长将从今年的240万桶/日萎缩至2028年的40万桶/天，需求将达到峰值。

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特别是，随着电动汽车的扩张、生物燃料的增长和燃料经济性的提高，2026年后，用于运输燃料的石油使用量将下降。

EIA执行主任法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）表示：“向清洁能源经济的转变正在加快，随着电动汽车、能源效率和其他技术的进步，全球石油需求有望在这个十年达到峰值。”“石油生产商需要密切关注不断加快的变化步伐，并调整投资决策，以确保有序过渡。”

在经历了三年的动荡之后，全球石油市场仍在缓慢地重新调整。在这三年里，石油市场首先被疫情所颠覆，然后又被地缘政治冲突所颠覆。这些引发的全球能源危机导致了全球贸易流的空前重组。随着欧佩克+联盟的减产缓和了全球石油供应的上升，全球石油市场可能在未来几个月大幅收紧。然而，根据新的报告，市场面临的多方面压力似乎将在未来几年逐步缓解。

尽管如此，新兴和发展中经济体蓬勃发展的石化需求和强劲消费增长将远远抵消发达经济体收缩带来的影响。

全球石油和天然气勘探、开采和生产的上游投资有望达到2015年以来的最高水平，2023年同比增长11%达到5280亿美元。虽然支出增加的影响将被成本通胀部分抵消，但如果持续下去，这一投资水平将足以满足报告所述期间的预测需求。然而，它超过了一个步入净零排放轨道的世界所需的数量。

该报告的预测假设，即使需求增长放缓，主要石油生产商仍维持其产能建设计划。预计这将产生至少380万桶/日的备用缓冲容量，主要集中在中东地区。尽管如此，该报告指出了一些可能影响中期市场平衡的因素，包括不确定的全球经济趋势、欧佩克+决策的方向以及亚洲炼油业政策。

欧佩克+联盟以外的产油国主导了中期内增加全球供应能力的计划，预计到2028年产能将增加510万桶/日，美国、巴西和圭亚那将领涨。沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和伊拉克领导了欧佩克+内部的产能建设计划，而非洲和亚洲成员国将与持续下降产能进行斗争，产能大国的产量也因制裁而下降。这使得欧佩克+的23个成员国在报告预测期内的净产能增加了80万桶/天。

在炼油行业，自疫情以来，由于一波又一波的关闭、向生物燃料工厂的转换和项目延误，全球产能的过剩已经减少。加上亚洲石油产品出口的急剧下降和产能大国贸易流的动荡，该行业去年的利润创下了历史新高。尽管到2028年，炼厂净新增产能预计将超过精炼产品的需求增长，但各产品之间的差异趋势意味着，2022年中间馏分油的紧张状况存在再次出现的可能。

IEA最新中期报告预计，2026年后，用于运输的石油使用量将下降，但预计强劲的石化需求仍将支撑整体消费。

林圣泽 编译自 世界能源网

原文如下：

Growth in Global Oil Demand Is Set to Slow Significantly by 2028

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.

Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.

The Oil 2023 medium-term market report forecasts that based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) –supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight.

In particular, the use of oil for transport fuels is set to go into decline after 2026 as the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels and improving fuel economy reduce consumption.

“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,”said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.”

Global oil markets are still slowly recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the war. The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has resulted in an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows. Global oil markets could tighten significantly in the coming months, as production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance temper an upswing in global oil supplies. However, the multifaceted strains on markets look set to ease in the following years, according to the new report.

Nevertheless, burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging and developing economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced economies.

Global upstream investments in oil and gas exploration, extraction and production are on course to reach their highest levels since 2015, growing 11% year-on-year to USD 528 billion in 2023. While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflation, this level of investment, if sustained, would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report. However, it exceeds the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emissions.

The report’s projections assume major oil producers maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows. This is expected to result in a spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d, concentrated in the Middle East. The report nonetheless notes a number of factors that could affect market balances over the medium term –including uncertain global economic trends, the direction of OPEC+ decisions and Asian refining industry policy.

Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 mb/d by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq lead the plans for capacity building within OPEC+, while African and Asian members are set to struggle with continuing declines, and the largger producer"s production falls due to sanctions. This makes for a net capacity gain of 0.8 mb/d from the 23 members in OPEC+ overall over the report’s forecast period.

In the refining sector, the overhang in global capacity has been reduced by waves of closures, conversions to biofuel plants and project delays since the pandemic. This, combined with a sharp drop in Asian oil product exports and an upheaval of the largger producer trade flows, resulted in record profits for the industry last year. While the amount of net refinery capacity additions by 2028 is expected to outpace demand growth for refined products, diverging trends among products means that a repeat of the 2022 tightness in middle distillates cannot be ruled out.

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.

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